Again bang on whatever themes you have communicated are also reflecting strongly into charts. If someone catches 3 or 4 Themes you have mentioned can easily beat the index. having said that Alfa Theme is without doubt AI although most of the leaders are 2X since April also depth of companies performing their is Mind Blowing Whether US or India. I 100% agree on your thoughts on Laggards their maybe shorts terms spurts but they never been a compounder (Few Exceptions) better to leave them alone during this phase. Thank You so much early waiting for your next newsletter..
Everytime I read your articles, just getting engrossed with length and depth of subject! Amazing! This sepeak a lot about your rich experience with market. Thanks 🙏
As usual , very interesting insights . Regarding defense sector, i feel this is going to be like private public bank moment, where with government support, private companies were able to take share from public sector companies. But however i feel, since defence is national security area, PSUs may be asked to be be at front end and with full support by private players in back end. But profitably wise, still don't know how this might work. What's your opinion sir ?
If as an Indian investor I can only own three asset buckets for the next 10-15 years : Indian equities, US equities, and gold/debt then what allocation would you choose today and why?
I am wondering where is long term compounding at play? Everyone is jumping onto new themes so everyone is thematic and themes last for a certain amount of time.Most of them say they follow Buffett/Munger but I don't see buy and hold strategies. So is buy and hold a thing of the past? Just wondering..
Not at all. There are investors who do buy and hold and long term compounding. Its just a matter of style. I try to play the 2-3 years themes. If one wants to play the decadal game then the strategy, rules etc have to be different. Everything works we need to see what works best for us as individuals.
India is 50-60% of Pharma market by volume in world but still continues to remain 5-6% of earnings in the world. How do you see Pharma And particularly GLP 1 drugs theme playout in the medium term?
I think Indian CDMO is a much longer term story. It's going to be a lumpy ride but if one plays for the long term there is scope for decent compounding.
If we are indeed at the start of a new earnings cycle in india, what are some 3-5 variables that'l tell whether this becomes a 2003-08 style wealth creation cycle or merely a 2020-24 style liquidity driven rally?
More like 23-24. For 2003-2008 we need to extreme undervaluation to extreme overvaluation with super high earnings growth globally . We are not at extreme undervaluation now and we’re not likely to have any super high global growth.
Again bang on whatever themes you have communicated are also reflecting strongly into charts. If someone catches 3 or 4 Themes you have mentioned can easily beat the index. having said that Alfa Theme is without doubt AI although most of the leaders are 2X since April also depth of companies performing their is Mind Blowing Whether US or India. I 100% agree on your thoughts on Laggards their maybe shorts terms spurts but they never been a compounder (Few Exceptions) better to leave them alone during this phase. Thank You so much early waiting for your next newsletter..
Thanks for the post. It was informative and brief to the point.
Everytime I read your articles, just getting engrossed with length and depth of subject! Amazing! This sepeak a lot about your rich experience with market. Thanks 🙏
Thank you for reading.
Do you think stocks in AI/Power & defence theme are overvalued with multiples > 100 and pricing in growth for many years?
They are richy valued but as long as growth and the perception of growth sustains the valuations will sustain.
Namaskaram sir,
As usual , very interesting insights . Regarding defense sector, i feel this is going to be like private public bank moment, where with government support, private companies were able to take share from public sector companies. But however i feel, since defence is national security area, PSUs may be asked to be be at front end and with full support by private players in back end. But profitably wise, still don't know how this might work. What's your opinion sir ?
Most private players are selling to the PSUs themselves. Profitability is good but order execution is lumpy so to that extent analysis is not easy.
Great Article as usual. Big Thank you.
If as an Indian investor I can only own three asset buckets for the next 10-15 years : Indian equities, US equities, and gold/debt then what allocation would you choose today and why?
I can’t decide for 10-15 years. As things stand now probably 60 India 30 US and 10 gold or some such variation.
Thanks sir 👍
How to find good stocks relating to themes you have mentioned?
I am wondering where is long term compounding at play? Everyone is jumping onto new themes so everyone is thematic and themes last for a certain amount of time.Most of them say they follow Buffett/Munger but I don't see buy and hold strategies. So is buy and hold a thing of the past? Just wondering..
Not at all. There are investors who do buy and hold and long term compounding. Its just a matter of style. I try to play the 2-3 years themes. If one wants to play the decadal game then the strategy, rules etc have to be different. Everything works we need to see what works best for us as individuals.
India is 50-60% of Pharma market by volume in world but still continues to remain 5-6% of earnings in the world. How do you see Pharma And particularly GLP 1 drugs theme playout in the medium term?
I think Indian CDMO is a much longer term story. It's going to be a lumpy ride but if one plays for the long term there is scope for decent compounding.
If we are indeed at the start of a new earnings cycle in india, what are some 3-5 variables that'l tell whether this becomes a 2003-08 style wealth creation cycle or merely a 2020-24 style liquidity driven rally?
More like 23-24. For 2003-2008 we need to extreme undervaluation to extreme overvaluation with super high earnings growth globally . We are not at extreme undervaluation now and we’re not likely to have any super high global growth.
Thanks Prabhakar. That's helpful.
Makes sense; without extreme undervaluation and strong global growth, 2003-08 style cycle seems unlikely.
What would be the some 2-3 indicators you'd watch to see if the current cycle is strengthening?
Appreciate the response.